The 2025 Fourstardave Handicap is just two weeks away. Held during Saratoga Race Course’s prestigious summer meet, it stands as one of the most anticipated events on North America’s equestrian calendar.
Each year, it draws a top-tier field of turf horses, and the stakes are high and the winner earns a fees-paid spot in November’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. For those unfamiliar with this race, it pays to know what factors really shape the outcome of this race.
Early Foot Wins Races Here
While turf races often favor late closers flashing down the stretch, the Fourstardave continues to reward early foot, especially on Saratoga’s firm inner turf. Over the past decade, this race has earned a reputation for favoring frontrunners or those sitting just off the pace.
That trend held again in 2024 when Casa Reed, under a perfectly timed ride, pressed early and never let up, defending his title in wire-to-wire fashion. Similar tactics worked for Voodoo Song (2018) and Get Stormy (2010), who both controlled the pace from the front.
With a field expected to feature several pace-forward types, positioning could make or break this year’s outcome. If you’re weighing tactical setups ahead of race day, reliable Fourstardave Handicap picks can offer a sharper lens into which horses are built for early dominance at Saratoga.
Track Conditions Make or Break Runners
Weather remains a critical variable in any racing event. In the case of the Fourstardave Handicap, Saratoga’s turf can shift quickly from firm to yielding, and this year’s early August forecasts suggest scattered showers in the lead-up. Consequently, this could soften the inner course just in time for race day.
Trainer Jim Bond has long emphasised the value of prepping horses across all conditions. According to him, adaptability is built through exposure.
“Horses have to get used to it,” Bond explained. “And you kind of watch their gait and how they handle it. It’s almost like somebody walking across ice. Some people walk over ice very gingerly. Some people just have the confidence to kind of walk over it like they’re not going to slip and fall. If they’re not handling it, the jockey can say ‘go,’ and they say ‘no.’”
And it’s not just horses that must adjust. Jockeys racing on a muddy track might go through eight or nine pairs of goggles, tossing one after another to maintain clear sight. For the horses, trainers may use mud shields or protective gear to reduce the impact of kickback and protect their eyes from the slop.
If showers hit just before race day, bettors should reassess. Running style and past off-track form can be crucial deciding factors.
Saratoga’s Turf Authority
No jockey has owned the Fourstardave quite like John Velazquez. With nine career wins, three of them coming in three consecutive years (2011, 2012, and 2013), his track record on Saratoga’s turf is beyond impressive.
If he’s paired with a live mount, expect tactical positioning and precision timing, especially in the final furlong where this race is so often decided.
Trainer Bill Mott continues to be a major player as well. With six total Fourstardave wins under his belt, his back-to-back victories with Casa Creed in 2022 and 2023 reinforced his ability to keep turf runners sharp for the big stage.
Even when he isn’t saddling the obvious favorite, Mott-trained turf milers tend to run big at Saratoga, and bettors know it.
Battle-Tested Horses Hold the Edge
Except for Justenuffhumor, nearly every Fourstardave champion has entered with at least one prior stakes victory, most from graded events. That pattern could be true into 2025.
Just look at recent winners like Casa Creed (2022–23), who arrived off back-to-back graded stakes wins before doubling down at Saratoga. There’s also Carl Spackler (2024), who captured the Grade III Kelso and had already posted three graded wins on the inner turf. Casa Creed’s repeat victory was prepped by a strong seasonal form chart topped by a Kelso Stakes run.
These are form trends that continue to hold up. Armed with that resume, bettors can confidently place horses with graded stakes credentials ahead of less proven rivals.
Ready for the $750K Turf Test?
The Fourstardave Handicap is a headline act of the Saratoga summer meet, and the $750,000 purse reflects that. Racing fans and bettors alike circle this one on the calendar, and as the day approaches, punters looking to make smart plays should consider all of these angles. So, get your notes ready, and be prepared to read the field with more than just morning-line odds.
